The Israeli Elections (JS)

Yesterday's Israeli election, like all Israeli elections, provided an amazing amount of fodder for political scientists.

First off, the results:  Kadima, the party founded a few short months ago by Ariel Sharon, and now led in his stead by former Jerusalem mayor Ehud Olmert, won ~28 seats in the 120 member parliament.  While succeeding in winning the largest number of seats, Kadima won fewer seats than expected, which will make it more difficult to form a stable coalition government.

In second place came Labor, the old-standard of Israeli politics, with ~20 seats.

In a surprise, third place went not to Likud, the other traditional main political party, but to Shas (13 seats), a Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party concerned mainly with social issues effecting the religious Sephardi community.

Another specialty party, the Russian immigrant-dominated faction Yisrael Beiteinu, came in forth place with 12 seats.  This faction seems to have drained conservative Russian support that would have otherwise likely gone to Likud.

In fifth place came Likud with only 11 seats, a huge drop from the 38 seats it currently holds.  Most of this loss can be attributed to the inter-party split that created Kadima, though some votes clearly went to Yisrael Beiteinu, as discussed above.

The rest of the large blocs went to, in order: The right-wing National Union-National Religious Party (9 seats); the Gil (Pensioners) Party (7 seats); United Torah Judaism (6 seats); and Meretz (4 seats). The Arab parties won a total of ten seats.

So what does all of this mean?

The most obvious trend is the support for parties that focused primarily on social issues.  This can be attributed to the overwhelming agreement amongst the Israeli population that disengagement will be the policy of Israel for the foreseeable future, allowing individuals to focus on other issues when voting.

Olmert now has a hard task in front of him.  He must cobble together a government made up of various fractions that both supports his unilateral withdrawal plan and can withstand internal divisions that are sure to arise given the fractured nature of any possible coalition.

His most likely path involves forming a government comprised of the large center left groups (Labor and Gil) and some of the more right wing groups that are concerned mainly with social issues (Shas and/or United Torah Judaism).  The problem with this plan is that Gil's policy on the Palestinian issue are basically unknown, while Shas and UTJ could eventually bolt the coalition if and when Olmert decides it is time to pull Israelis out of the West Bank.  This possible coalition would likely be more stable than other options however.

Less probable, Olmert could try to form a center-right coalition, though this would likely preclude any further unilateral withdrawals, the central tenant of Kadima.

A third possibility is that a completely different coalition of left wing groups could form the next government without Kadima.  This is an even longer shot, but not completely impossible.

The fourth possibility is that the divergent political puzzle that has emerged from yesterday's election was so fractured that no coalition will be possible.  In that case, Israelis will be sent back to the polls once again.  Perhaps that would bring out more than the 63.2% of Israelis that voted this time around, the lowest percentage by far in Israeli history.

My prediction is that Olmert forms a coalition with Labor, Gil, Shas, and UTJ, giving him ~74 seats, with an extra 4 seat cushion from Meretz who will be unlikely to be invited into the government.  That would make for a relatively stable government, at least in the short term.  I doubt the government will last the full four years though, ensuring more Israeli political drama in the near future.