FDD Expert Reacts to British-Iranian Confrontation

Fifteen British sailors carrying out a routine inspection in the Persian Gulf were captured at gunpoint and taken into custody by Iranian naval vessels on Friday morning. Reacting to this incident, FDD Fellow Mario Loyola wrote on National Review Online that Iranian forces were likely “responding…to a carefully-planned provocation of our own”:

Recall the context: the Security Council route for dealing with Iran's nuclear program has clearly failed. The U.S. and its partners now have few options for responding to Iran's continued belligerence besides the current, fairly massive, naval and airpower buildup in the Gulf. Iran now has a western armada cruising just miles from its coasts, in waters well within its Economic Exploitation Zone — which means that U.S. Navy destroyers are probably waltzing around within Frisbee range of Iranian offshore drilling platforms. The gloves are coming off. And the risk-calculation here is as follows: If someone gets nervous and starts shooting, the timing would be more auspicious now for us than for the Iranians. Therefore, it only makes sense that American and British naval units operating in the Gulf would be in a more forward-leaning and aggressive posture than the Iranians.

Mario is a former consultant to the Defense Department who writes frequently on Iran and national security. His bio and recent writings are here.