Negotiating with Iran (AM)
While the State Department engages in direct negotiations and joins the EU in pleading with the mullahs to stop enriching uranium, all of which the chuckling Iranian regime takes as a sign of weakness because it is, of course, a sign of weakness, Iran not only indicts Americans for death penalty offenses but now arms the Taliban against NATO, just as it has been arming Iraqi terrorists against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq (that is, when not engaging in direct strikes against U.S. forces). See Bill Roggio here.
Tiger Hawk has the run-down here. As he says: "Make no mistake about it, Iran is waging war against the United States and its allies."
As I've mentioned before (see, e.g. here and here), throughout the 1990s, we pretended that we were not at war while a determined, implacable enemy was clearly at war with us. We saw the results. Iran was part of that enemy then, and it has never stopped. If killing Americans is not enough, just what exactly do they have to do before we do something meaningful in response?
IT'S ALL ABOUT IRAN
A DRAMATIC NEW APPROACH TO IRAN
We need to deal with Iran now otherwise the US will be left at one minute to midnight with no other option but to attack Iran. The longer the US waits to impose a meaningful sanction regime against Iran, the greater the necessity of military action will become - with all the potential disastrous political and economic consequences for both parties.
THE REALITY IS THE US DOES NOT NEED CHINA OR RUSSIA TO INPOSE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN. THE US CAN IMPOSE DEVASTATING RECIPROCAL SANCTIONS
There is an impending political and military catastrophe facing America and Europe in the Middle East. This catastrophe will lead to a disastrous disruption of oil supplies that will force oil prices to $10.00/$20.00/gallon and throw the world economy into a massive recession affecting all world economies epically the developing economies of China and India. This could cause political instability on a world wide scale. The reality of the situation is that you can talk with the Iranian leadership until you are blue in the face - AND NOTHING WILL BE ACHIEVED. Iran is marching forward to obtaining a nuclear weapon and will not be stopped with endless talk. TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE.
The United States is engaged in a Life and Death Struggle for its national survival. Islamic Fundamentalists, Iran and want to inflict a mortal wound. The United States faces the greatest strategic defeat in its national history.
If the US is forced out of Iraq the following disaster will ensue.
1. The Iraqi government immediately collapses.
All Iraqis who supported the Government and US flee the country by the hundreds of thousands.
2. Iran immediately steps into the power vacuum supporting the seizure of Baghdad by their radical Shiite militia allies.
3. A radical Shiite Islamic government is imposed on Iraq.
4. A podium against the Sunnis begins with millions killed. The survivors are driven out of the country.
5. One million Hezbollah style fighters are enlisted into the radical Shiite Militias. (If Hezbollah can muster an army of fifty thousand fighters from a Lebanese population of 1.5 million Shiites - then in Iraq a Hezbollah style government would create an army of one million Shiite fanatics.)
6. This force in alliance with the Iranian army captures Riyadh within weeks and seizes the Gulf States.
7. They then march into Jordon creating a Shiite Crescent stretching from Iran to the Suez Canal and from the Mediterranean Sea to the Russian Cossacks.
8. As previously mentioned - with 80% of the world's oil, under Iran's control the price will soar to $10.00/20.00 per gallon.
9. Israel is attacked with rockets on all sides effectively shutting down the Israeli economy and destroying the Jewish state.
10. After obtaining nuclear weapons, Iran unleashes terrorist forces worldwide attacking Europe and the US.
11. These terrorists smuggle nuclear weapons into London, Paris, Washington, New York and kill millions.
This nightmare does not have to happen.
TOUGH LOVE AND IRAN
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme ruling Alloyatolls see the 21st century not as the century of the rise of China or India but as the century of the Great Shiite Revival - the Rise of the Shiites. After 1400 years of Sunni domination and oppression, they see Sunni dominance not only in the Middle East but over Islam itself coming to an end.
Ahamadinejad wants to establish a Great Shiite Persian Empire stretching from Tehran to the Red Sea and from the Mediterranean Sea to the Caucasus regions of Russia, to the very borders of China - incorporating all the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan, under the direct control or controlled as vassal states by Iran. This empire would directly control 80% of the entire world oil supply. Iran is a mortal threat not only to Israel but to all the Sunni Arab States. Only the might of the United States stands in the way of this Great Imperial Dream.
There is the saying "When times get tough - the tough get going." Unfortunately at this moment - with the total lack of any kind of Western Leadership, this saying has been replaced by "When times get tough - the tough get talking and talking and talking." In the West talking has become a form of appeasement - a way to show that action is being taken - that the tough Western dudes are beating up on Ahmadinejad, when in reality we're getting our clocks cleaned. Ahmadinejad is going for the Great World Political Poker Championship jackpot with a pair of deuces. Everyone sitting at the game knows that all he has to play is a pair of twos and nobody is calling his hand. Its time to stop playing pocket polo. Its time to call his bluff with our 8 pairs of aces.
Just as the CIA, MI5, French Secret Service, the KGB, all the world's secret services, even Iraqi generals thought that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction when we now know he had none - grossly overestimated Iraq's nuclear capabilities to say the least, so too with regard to Iran - all these agencies could be grossly underestimating the Iranian Nuclear Program. The United States does not want to be placed in a position of Iran being months away from going nuclear and forced to face the very harsh reality of attacking Iran. Where force is the only option left. A Tough Love Sanctions Regime must be immediately imposed on Iran. Time for talking at the UN is over. IT'S TIME FOR TOUGH LOVE IRANIAN STYLE.
TOUGH LOVE IRANIAN SANCTIONS
The United States with or without EU support immediately imposes economic and political sanctions against Iran. The sanction regime is divided into 4 parts - Defcom 1 to Defcom 4 with each phase commencing every 30 days and staying in effect until the crisis is resolved. Within the space of 4 months Iran will be under total world wide devastating economic sanctions. ANY INDIVIDUAL, CORPORATION, COUNTRY THAT DISOBEYS ANY PART OF THE SANCTION REGIME - THEN THE TOTALITY OF THE ENTIRE SANCTION REGIME IMMEDIATELY APPLIES TO THEM.
DEFCON 1 SANCTIONS
Under Defcon 1 sanctions Iran is immediately hit with the following measures:
1. The cutting off of all military and nuclear technology, materials, training, building including the Bushehr nuclear power plant being built by the Russians.
2. The suspension of all flights - both private and commercial aircraft in or out of Iran.
3. The worldwide banning of all Iranian passports.
4. Severing all banking relationships between all Iranian Government agencies/officials/organizations, banks, companies, front companies with the entire world banking community.
5. The freezing of all Iranian assets throughout the world including all assets of Iranian Government, Iranian companies, front companies, government officials/organizations.
DEFCON 2
In 30 days, if Iran refuses to stop all uranium enrichment and sit down at the table in good faith then the imposition of the following Defcon 2 Sanctions:
1. The immediate stoppage of all forms of transportation coming in or out of Iran including, buses, automobiles, boats. Only oil tankers would be exempt.
2. Cutting off of all satellite signals, phone lines, internet connections, electricity etc.
3. The complete closure of all border crossings to Iran.
4. The complete shutting down of all economic activity/trade with the outside world except for the importation of gasoline into Iran and the export of oil and gas out of Iran.
DEFCON 3
Thirty days after the imposition of Defcon 2 sanctions, the start of Defcon 3:
1. The importation of gasoline into Iran to be ceased by all countries, companies and individuals.
DEFCON 4
120 days after the start of the first sanction regime - Defcon 4 - the stoppage of all payments for Iranian oil and gas exports - NOT THE STOPPAGE OF THE EXPORT OF IRANIAN OIL AND GAS. JUST THE PAYMENTS FOR THESE PRODUCTS.
Iran can export oil and gas to China etc but the Chinese and other countries can not send money or any other financial instruments to Iran. In short - the oil/gas flows out but no money flows in. If Iran decides to stop the export of oil to certain countries but not to others like China, then under this sanction regime all countries including China must help the affected country or countries. In short, share the pain of oil shortages. If any country refuses to cooperate then the totality of these sanctions will be imposed immediately on them
DEFCON 5
The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.
DEFCON 6
The invasion of Iran.
Any force against Iran must be as a last resort. This includes any naval blockade. These are measures to be used only if and when Iran is on the verge of getting a bomb.
Again, if any country, company, or individual chooses to disobey these sanctions then THE TOTALITY OF THE SANCTIONS IMMEDIATELY APPLIES TO THEM. For example, if China decides to continue trading with Iran then all trade between China and ALL countries, companies, individuals immediately ceases. All Chinese container ships on their way to the US or any other country must be turned back. All international flights in or out of China cease. All Chinese passports to be null and void etc. If any country decides to continue to trade with China then the totality of the sanctions immediately applies to them. And so on.
This sanction regime is absolutely devastating. Having these sanctions apply to any country who decides to ignore them will totally devastate that countries economy. THIS LINKAGE GIVES THESE SANCTIONS TOUGH LOVE FURIOUS TEETH.
The smile/smirk on Ahmadinejad's face will be wiped clean. Most important - the flow of oil does not stop unless Iran chooses to stop it. Only the money flow stops. By not cutting off the oil/gas flow Iran is faced with a dilemma. If it decides to stop the export of these commodities then Iran will definitely lose the support of its two closest allies - Russia/China. These reciprocal sanctions give cover to the EU, Russia and China who can claim to Iran that this situation is not their fault - they have no choice - it is the big, bad USA. The oil gets shipped and the buyer countries send the payments for Iran to a UN trust account until an agreement has been reached. If however Iran resorts to acts of force/ terrorism etc or actually builds a nuclear device then all accumulated monies are immediately forfeited.
If these sanctions do not work then the US will have to attack Iran with all the military, political and economic consequences.
Written By,
Larry Houle
E-mail: intermedusa@yahoo.com
www.iran democracy.net
Posted by: Larry houle | June 10, 2007 at 10:55 AM