Walid Phares: Saad Bin Laden in Lebanon?

In an MSNBC interview with Tucker Carlson yesterday, I commented on the report by a German publication that Iranian authorities have "released Saad Bin Laden from his house arrest in Iran to be assigned at the Lebanese Syrian borders." My comments, short and analytical, summarize as follow:

1) If this report is correct (we still need confirmation) it would be a very "exceptional" matter. For obviously the Khumeinist regime and the al Qaida Salafists are ideologically and politically very distant. Not only on doctrinal issues that separate Sunnis and Shias, but on the matters that pits Fundamentalists from both sides against each other. For Islamists, from both communities are more sensitive to the Shia-Sunni divide than the majority of ordinary people in the Muslim world.

2) For Iran to openly escort and "deploy" an al Qaeda figure to the "Lebanese battlefield," would damage the remaining credibility it pretends it has a broker of stabilization in Lebanon. It would also harm the attempts by their allies the Baathists of Syria to project themselves as potential mediators with Hezbollah. Many "lobbyists" for Bashar Assad in Washington and Brussels (European Parliament) are trying hard to rehabilitate the Syrian regime as power broker in Lebanon. But with the al Qaeda factor on its borders, this renewed attempt would be undermined significantly. Finally Hezbollah itself would be embarrassed among Lebanese, Arabs and Europeans if it is confirmed that their masters in Tehran have ordered them to cooperate with Bin Laden's son.

3) However (and the German report has to be confirmed for this paragraph to be validated) it would be precisely the "exceptional" character of that alleged Iranian decision which could change the above geopolitics and interests. Because Tehran may judge the strategic situation as "very exceptional," i.e. the threat against its main tool in the world, Hezbollah, then the "use" of an anti-Western threat on the Lebanese scene wouldn't be impossible. Syria has had a precedent in 2003 when it allowed (if not encouraged) the "passage" of Salafi Jihadists from Lebanon and the Arab World into Iraq through its borders. Hezbollah also has had precedents in coordination with Sunni Salafi Islamists in Lebanon against Israel, and most recently has pledged to work with Salafi Jihadists to fight the "US-backed Israeli aggression in Lebanon."

In short, indeed the gap between Salafists and Khumeinists is huge and yes, they are bound to fight each others when "times will come." But until these "future times" are here, the present struggle against a "common enemy," can produce emergency decisions, or at least theatrical but dangerous moves. We'll follow up on the development to see if a decision was made in Tehran and Damascus, and if indeed if such a decision was made, how strategic it is.

Walid Phares, Senior Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a Visiting Fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy, author of Future Jihad

Comments

[Mark Eichenlaub]

So Syria is turning over intelligence to the U.S. on the locations of al Qaeda cells and then Iran is releasing al Qaeda?
Either their united front is gone or something else is amiss.

[Roxie]

Hizbollah and Israel and the Future
By Roxie

Mats Wärn, Department of Political Science, Stockholm University, Master Thesis, May 1999 - http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/300/320/324/324.2/hizballah/warn2/index.html states the following about Hizbollah (The Party of God):
“Hizbollah, like Khomeini, blames the United States for being behind the catastrophes of the country; . . . We have risen to liberate out country, to drive the imperialists and the invaders out of it, and to determine our fate by our own hands" (Norton 1987a: 171). Islam - in this quest for resistance - is to Hizbollah both a solution and a source of inspiration and mobilization. . . "We are a nation committed to the message of Islam", the text goes on, "and a nation that wishes the downtrodden and all people to study the divine message because it will bring justice, peace, and serenity in the world" (ibid: 174). The movement stresses, though, that it does not "wish to impose Islam on anybody and we hate to see others impose on us their convictions and systems" (ibid). .. . On this basis, the movement also rejects any accomodation whatsoever to the Lebanese state.”

While Hizbollah rejects any accommodation to the Lebanese State, the Lebanese State appears to make accommodation to Hizbollah. “Hizbollah is nowadays a political party and a movement which enjoys a large bulk of grass-roots' support and an increasing degree of legitimacy among parties and people of various sectarian creeds and colours. From being a clandestine unit of small military cells fighting the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the party is now present in parliament, it runs schools, hospitals and other various forms of social services, and it still fights the Israeli occupation of south Lebanon - with the approval of both public and state.” http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/300/320/324/324.2/hizballah/warn2/shaping.html#fray It is important to note, the fighting with Israeli occupation in Lebanon is done with the approval of BOTH the public and the State of Lebanon.

In August, 2006, a news report confirms other “terrorist” organizations also support Hezbollah. “Aaron Klein, Jerusalem Bureau Chief for WorldNetDaily.com, reports that Palestinian terrorists operating out of Lebanon have passed large quantities of heavy weaponry to Hezbollah for use against Israel, following calls by Abbas' party for its 'fighters in Lebanon' to enter combat.” http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=109179 Missiles are reportedly supplied by Iran and Syria to Hizbollah. Iran may provide far more support of Hizbollah. “BERLIN (Reuters, August 2006) - Iran has freed a son of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from house arrest, a German newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Die Welt said the Iranian Revolutionary Guard released Saad bin Laden on July 28 with the aim of sending him to the Syria-Lebanon border. It linked the reported move to the outbreak of war between Israel and Lebanese-based Hizbollah.
"From the Lebanese border, he has the task of building Islamist terror cells and preparing them to fight together with Hizbollah," Die Welt said, quoting intelligence information.
"Apparently Tehran is counting on recruiting Lebanese refugees in Syria for the fight against Israel, using bin Laden's help," it added in a preview of a report to appear in its Thursday edition.”

Given these conditions, any theory that Hizbollah will be disarmed is the stuff of myth, not reality. Any idea that a lasting peace will take place without dealing with the issues of Iran and Syria is also a myth. Iran sits in defiance of the United Nations. Iran has expressed its dedication to the destruction of Israel. The very idea that Hizbollah, modeled from Iraq’s Islamic movement, will participate in any lasting peace is to fail to understand Hizbollah and the nature of Islamic of such Islamic movements.

A 2006 ceasefire will result in the strengthening of Hizbollah, as a national voice in Lebanon similar to Palestine where Hamas became the government. After Hizbollah becomes the government, it will control of the Lebanon army, which the United States is proposing to sell arms as a part of the ceasefire. As a result, Israel will be facing stronger, more organized group of armies in the future. The result may be a cold-war between radical Islamic governments and Israel, offering an extended period of peace; or a much wider, much more devastating war in the not to distant future; or the destruction of Israel. The result will not be lasting peace in the Middle East.