FDD

Bin Laden and Future Jihad in Europe (WP)

From the World Defense Review:

What is interesting about the latest audio message of Usama Bin Laden, carried by al Jazeera, is its delayed argumentation. Strangely he is trying to convince the Europeans – seven years later – that they are wrong to follow the United States into Afghanistan.

In his speech – regardless of the ritual investigative questions regarding the location, technology and other details – the central issue appears to be his growing concern with the European role in Afghanistan, and, perhaps through it, the potential growth of that role in the fight against the forces of Jihadism worldwide. Indeed as a reader of the Jihadi strategic mind, I feel that the speech writers (Bin Laden himself or his "advisors") are looking ahead in their perception of future European involvement in the so-called War on Terror. And as al Qaeda's war room has showed in the past, they are skilled at anticipating trends.

Don't we remember how in February 2003, a Bin Laden audio called on the Jihad fighters to begin heading to Iraq, "for Baghdad, the second capital of the Caliphate would be falling into the hands of the Kuffar (infidels)," way before the US Marines brought down the Saddam statue in April.

In a sense, this is how I read this new Bin Laden tape: He is asking the Europeans to leave the battlefield of Afghanistan now, because he is projecting that events may push the nations of Europe to expand further their involvement overseas. The hidden message in his speech is by far greater than the words aired on al Jazeera, or even the entire text his followers are claiming the Qatari-funded channel "didn't air." We'll come back later on the al Qaeda/al Jazeera labyrinth. The question now is about the essence of the message.

Al-Qaeda Worldwide (CM)

Sen. Joe Lieberman writes:

[D]efeating al Qaeda in Iraq requires not only that we continue pressing the offensive against its leadership and infrastructure inside the country. We must also aggressively target its links to "global" al Qaeda and close off the routes its foreign fighters are using to get into Iraq.

Recently declassified American intelligence reveals just how much al Qaeda in Iraq is dependent for its survival on the support it receives from the broader, global al Qaeda network, and how most of that support flows into Iraq through one country -- Syria. Al Qaeda in Iraq is sustained by a transnational network of facilitators and human smugglers, who replenish its supply of suicide bombers -- approximately 60 to 80 Islamist extremists, recruited every month from across the Middle East, North Africa and Europe, and sent to meet their al Qaeda handlers in Syria, from where they are taken to Iraq to blow themselves up to kill countless others.

Although small in number, these foreign fighters are a vital strategic asset to al Qaeda in Iraq, providing it with the essential human ammunition it needs to conduct high-visibility, mass-casualty suicide bombings, such as we saw last week in northern Iraq. In fact, the U.S. military estimates that between 80% and 90% of suicide attacks in Iraq are perpetrated by foreign fighters, making them the deadliest weapon in al Qaeda's war arsenal. Without them, al Qaeda in Iraq would be critically, perhaps even fatally, weakened.

More here.

Al-Qaeda in Pakistan (RWC)

General Pervez Musharraf, the strongman of Pakistan, is complaining that US air strikes against al Qaeda, or more specifically publicity about those strikes, is hurting him politically in Pakistan.

He made that complaint to a visiting US senator, a generally annoying publicity hound so I’m not going to mention his name.  President Musharraf said all the talk is “unhelpful”.

A week ago Mr.  Musharraf was talking about imposing martial law, claiming comments, like those recently of Barrack Obama, were causing widespread public unrest.  But the Pakistani president's remarks about martial law upset his countrymen a whole lot more and he backed quickly away.

Staging posts for al Qaeda attacks were crushed recently by artillery fire and helicopter gun-ships.  Ten militants or more were killed.

Al-Qaeda in Pakistan (RWC)

General Pervez Musharraf, the strongman of Pakistan, is complaining that US air strikes against al Qaeda, or more specifically publicity about those strikes, is hurting him politically in Pakistan.

He made that complaint to a visiting US senator, a generally annoying publicity hound so I’m not going to mention his name.  President Musharraf said all the talk is “unhelpful”.

A week ago Mr.  Musharraf was talking about imposing martial law, claiming comments, like those recently of Barrack Obama, were causing widespread public unrest.  But the Pakistani president's remarks about martial law upset his countrymen a whole lot more and he backed quickly away.

Staging posts for al Qaeda attacks were crushed recently by artillery fire and helicopter gun-ships.  Ten militants or more were killed.

Al-Qaeda in Pakistan (CM)

What should the U.S. do about it? David Ignatius writes:

Henry Crumpton, a former CIA officer who was one of the heroes of the agency's campaign to destroy al-Qaeda's haven in Afghanistan in late 2001...served as the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism. He...argues that the United States must take preventive action but that it should do so carefully, through proxies wherever possible. The right model for a Waziristan campaign is the CIA-led operation in Afghanistan, not the U.S. military invasion of Iraq. Teams of CIA officers and Special Forces soldiers are best suited to work with tribal leaders, providing them weapons and money to fight an al-Qaeda network that has implanted itself brutally in Waziristan through the assassination of more than 100 tribal leaders during the past six years. It would be better to conduct such operations jointly with Pakistan, but if the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf can't or won't cooperate, the United States should be prepared to go it alone, Crumpton argues.

"The United States has an obligation to defend itself and its citizens," says Crumpton. "We either do it now, or we do it after the next attack."

More here.

Al-Qaeda in Iran (CM)

Eli Lake writes in the NY Sun:

One of two known Al Qaeda leadership councils meets regularly in eastern Iran, where the American intelligence community believes dozens of senior Al Qaeda leaders have reconstituted a good part of the terror conglomerate's senior leadership structure.

That is a consensus judgment from a final working draft of a new National Intelligence Estimate, titled "The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland," on the organization that attacked the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. The estimate, which represents the opinion of America's intelligence agencies, is now finished, and unclassified conclusions will be shared today with the public. …

The judgment that Iran has hosted Al Qaeda's senior leadership council is likely to draw some criticism from those outside the government who doubt Iran plays a significant role in bolstering Sunni jihadist terrorism. Iran's Shiite Muslims are considered infidels by the Salafi sect of Sunnis that comprise Al Qaeda.

While there is little disagreement that a branch of Al Qaeda's leadership operates in Iran, the intelligence community diverges on the extent to which the hosting of the senior leaders represents a policy of the regime in Tehran or the rogue actions of Iran's Quds Force, the terrorist support units that report directly to Iran's supreme leader. …

An intelligence official sympathetic to the view that it is a matter of Iranian policy to cooperate with Al Qaeda disputed the CIA and State Department view that the Quds Force is operating as a rogue force. "It is just impossible to believe that what the Quds Force does with Al Qaeda does not represent a decision of the government," the official, who asked not to be identified, said. "It's a bit like saying the directorate of operations for the CIA is not really carrying out U.S. policy."

Some intelligence reporting suggests, the source said, that the current chief of the Quds Force, General Qassem Sulamani, has met with Saad bin Laden, Mr. Adel, and Mr. Abu Ghaith.

The link between Iran and Al Qaeda is not new, in some cases. The bipartisan September 11 commission report, for example, concluded: "There is strong evidence that Iran facilitated the transit of Al Qaeda members into and out of Afghanistan before 9/11, and that some of these were future 9/11 hijackers."

According to the commission, a senior Al Qaeda coordinator, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, said eight of the September 11 hijackers went through Iran on their way to and from Afghanistan.

In 2005, both Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns and the then ambassador at large for counterterrorism, Cofer Black, disclosed that America believes that senior Al Qaeda leaders reside in Iran.

More here.

Gartenstein-Ross on JFK Plot

Senior Fellow Daveed Gartenstein-Ross discusses the JFK terror plot in his most recent Weekly Standard article.

Images of Al-Qaeda Torture (CM)

BRIAN TODD, CNN:  “Wolf, they were found in an al Qaeda safe house during recent raids in and around Baghdad. U.S. Military officials say these images that they just declassified show the true nature of what the Iraqi people are facing and they reinforce in the minds of American military commanders why U.S. Forces are there.

“Torture at the hands of al Qaeda. Victims suspended upside down and whipped, drilled through the hands, suspended from a ceiling and electrocuted. U.S. military officials say these cartoons are part of an al Qaeda training manual complete with how to use a blowtorch on a victim's body.

“These drawings given to CNN by the U.S. military in Iraq were found on a computer captured during recent raids of al Qaeda safe houses.”

GEN. WILLIAM CALDWELL, MNF-I:  “They made it in a cartoon manner so that no matter what your literacy rate or what nationality you are, all you've got to do is look at this picture to understand how to conduct tortures of innocent people.”

TODD:  “Methods like taking a hot iron to the skin, and others too grotesque to show.”

CALDWELL:  “This is the nature of the enemy that the Iraqi people are facing in Iraq.”

Download al_qaeda_torture_2007_05_23.pdf

Al-Qaeda Regrouping (RWC)

An article by Kevin Whitelaw in US News & World report says that al Qaeda’s top leaders, once on the run, have regrouped

U.S. intelligence agencies have completely revised their assessment of al Qaeda the article says.

And they have reached an alarming conclusion: Bin Laden has a safe-haven in Pakistan and he may be stronger than ever.

The shift is dramatic. Two years ago, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, described al Qaeda leaders to Congress as battered and isolated.

Now, the DIA says, "Al Qaeda retains the ability to organize complex, mass-casualty attacks and inspire others,"

“Al Qaeda has consistently recovered from losses of senior leadership."

Officials now privately concede they overestimated the damage they had inflicted on al Qaeda's network. revitalized Taliban.

Pakistan has been an American ally against al Qaeda, but U.S. officials are increasingly frustrated by its inability-or unwillingness-to crack down in the tribal regions.

Al-Qaeda Targeting Great Britain (RWC)

Al Qaeda is planning a massive attack in Britain, and maybe in other Western targets.

This from the London Sunday Times, sent to us by our friend Glenmore Trenear Harvey, a former MI 5 agent who lives in London.

The Times quotes a British intelligence report that the attack will be aided by Iranian supporters of al-Qaeda.

The possible attack was compared with "Hiroshima and Nagasaki" and an informant said it would "shake the Roman empire."

The threat is “deadly and enduring” said Scotland Yard’s Peter Clark, commander of the UK’s counter terrorism force. He told Bloomberg News that the Brits have arrested over 1,000 al-Qaeda connected hard-core radical Muslims since 9/11 and about 100 of them are still awaiting trial.

Clark described al-Qaeda in Britain as “incredibly resilient.”

Senior al-Qaeda operatives have been in recent contact with British supporters and they have talked about "a huge explosion," says British sources.

Up to 150 British Muslims are believed to have traveled to Iraq to fight Americans as part of what al-Qaeda calls its own "foreign legion," according to British intelligence sources.

The recent secret report was prepared by "Jay Tac" -- the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre -- which is at MI5's London headquarters. The London Times says its editors have read a copy.

Al-Qaeda is not yet believed to have acquired a nuclear weapon, though Osama Bin Laden has personally tried. But a number of al-Qaeda plots involving "dirty bombs," conventional explosives surrounding radioactive material, have so far been foiled.